Take-Two's bookings fell 18% last quarter, but GTA 6 pre-orders are "far in excess" of what it expected

Take-Two just had a soft quarter, and nobody there seems worried. The GTA publisher reported its fiscal second-quarter results on November 9 for the three months ending September 30. Net bookings fell 18% to $1.60 billion, down from $1.96 billion a year ago, and GAAP net revenue slipped to $1.50 billion from $1.77 billion. Recurrent spending, the in-game purchases and add-ons that make up most of its business, dropped 9% and still accounted for 81% of bookings. Take-Two posted a $54 million net loss, narrower than last year’s $133.9 million.

The miss mostly comes down to basketball. NBA 2K27 has sold more than 4 million units since its September 4 launch and had the second-best launch bookings in the series’ history, but it still came in under Take-Two’s forecast, GamesIndustry.biz reported. The company blamed an unusually crowded release window and expects post-launch content to help.

Then there’s the elephant in Vice City. “The launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is ten days away and, with pre-orders continuing to reach unprecedented levels, we expect to deliver an historic year for our company,” CEO Strauss Zelnick said. Take-Two says GTA 6 pre-orders are tracking “far in excess” of its initial expectations, and on the analyst call executives said Rockstar has finished the game, per GamesBeat. GTA 5, for the record, is now at nearly 235 million units.

Here’s the odd part. Take-Two kept its full-year outlook at $8.0 to $8.2 billion in net bookings rather than raising it. It is guiding $3.35 to $3.5 billion for the October to December quarter, which covers roughly six weeks of GTA 6 sales. Zelnick told GamesIndustry.biz the company is holding guidance because “the release is only 10 days away and we’ll know a lot more after the release.” On the call he was even more cautious: “it makes me nervous even saying those words… we still aren’t ready to declare victory.” Investors didn’t share the nerves. The stock rose about 5% after hours, GamesBeat noted. Take-Two also expects operating expenses to climb about 21% next quarter, mostly from GTA 6 marketing.

GTA VI launches November 19 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. Pre-loads are already rolling out, as we covered yesterday.

PPR take: An 18% drop would be a headline at most publishers. At Take-Two it’s a rounding error before the biggest launch in years. For players, the useful bits are that Rockstar has finished the game, the date is holding, and pre-order demand is real. I wouldn’t bet on another delay at this point. Holding guidance flat is classic Zelnick caution, and it leaves Take-Two plenty of room to beat its own number once the sales come in. The NBA 2K27 note is worth watching, though. A franchise that sells 4 million copies and still “misses” shows how high the bar is for annual sports games, and how much pressure post-launch monetization carries. Ten more days.